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ManufacturingLeading
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Diffusion index (0 = expansion/contraction threshold) · monthly · since 1968
3yr rolling correlation to S&P 500
+0.10
long-run avg: +0.40
Free stand-in for the ISM Manufacturing PMI (proprietary). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia via FRED.
Shaded bands below mark these eras
Post-war boom (1947–1969)Stagflation (1973–1982)Volcker disinflation (1980–1982)The Great Moderation (1983–2000)Dot-com boom & bust (1995–2002)Housing bubble & Global Financial Crisis (2003–2009)Post-GFC recovery / QE era (2009–2015)Rate normalization (2015–2019)COVID crash & recovery (2020–2021)Inflation surge & hiking cycle (2021–2023)Current cycle (2024–present)
History vs. S&P 500 (indexed, start = 100)
Rolling correlation to S&P 500
Recalculated continuously using the trailing 3 years of data. Uses the raw value directly.
Advanced: rolling window
Correlation by era
The same math, run separately within each historical era’s date range.
| Era | Correlation | Months of data |
|---|---|---|
Post-war boom 1947–1969 | +0.56 | 20 |
Stagflation 1973–1982 | +0.34 | 120 |
Volcker disinflation 1980–1982 | +0.16 | 36 |
The Great Moderation 1983–2000 | +0.16 | 216 |
Dot-com boom & bust 1995–2002 | +0.50 | 96 |
Housing bubble & Global Financial Crisis 2003–2009 | +0.80 | 84 |
Post-GFC recovery / QE era 2009–2015 | +0.66 | 84 |
Rate normalization 2015–2019 | +0.72 | 60 |
COVID crash & recovery 2020–2021 | +0.69 | 24 |
Inflation surge & hiking cycle 2021–2023 | +0.80 | 36 |
Current cycle 2024–present | +0.05 | 33 |