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ConsumerCoincident
Health & Personal Care Retail Sales
Millions of dollars · monthly · since 1992
3yr rolling correlation to S&P 500
-0.13
long-run avg: +0.17
Informal "lipstick index" proxy — the theory being small indulgences rise in a pinched economy.
Shaded bands below mark these eras
Post-war boom (1947–1969)Stagflation (1973–1982)Volcker disinflation (1980–1982)The Great Moderation (1983–2000)Dot-com boom & bust (1995–2002)Housing bubble & Global Financial Crisis (2003–2009)Post-GFC recovery / QE era (2009–2015)Rate normalization (2015–2019)COVID crash & recovery (2020–2021)Inflation surge & hiking cycle (2021–2023)Current cycle (2024–present)
History vs. S&P 500 (indexed, start = 100)
Rolling correlation to S&P 500
Recalculated continuously using the trailing 3 years of data. Uses each series' year-over-year % change.
Advanced: rolling window
Correlation by era
The same math, run separately within each historical era’s date range.
| Era | Correlation | Months of data |
|---|---|---|
Post-war boom 1947–1969 | — | 0(thin) |
Stagflation 1973–1982 | — | 0(thin) |
Volcker disinflation 1980–1982 | — | 0(thin) |
The Great Moderation 1983–2000 | +0.38 | 96 |
Dot-com boom & bust 1995–2002 | +0.11 | 96 |
Housing bubble & Global Financial Crisis 2003–2009 | +0.34 | 84 |
Post-GFC recovery / QE era 2009–2015 | +0.01 | 84 |
Rate normalization 2015–2019 | -0.09 | 60 |
COVID crash & recovery 2020–2021 | +0.74 | 24 |
Inflation surge & hiking cycle 2021–2023 | +0.66 | 36 |
Current cycle 2024–present | -0.10 | 32 |