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10Y-2Y Yield Curve
Percentage points (10Y minus 2Y yield) · daily · since 1976
3yr rolling correlation to S&P 500
-0.42
long-run avg: +0.09
A negative value (inversion) is the classic recession-warning signal.
Shaded bands below mark these eras
Post-war boom (1947–1969)Stagflation (1973–1982)Volcker disinflation (1980–1982)The Great Moderation (1983–2000)Dot-com boom & bust (1995–2002)Housing bubble & Global Financial Crisis (2003–2009)Post-GFC recovery / QE era (2009–2015)Rate normalization (2015–2019)COVID crash & recovery (2020–2021)Inflation surge & hiking cycle (2021–2023)Current cycle (2024–present)
History vs. S&P 500 (indexed, start = 100)
Rolling correlation to S&P 500
Recalculated continuously using the trailing 3 years of data. Uses the raw value directly.
Advanced: rolling window
Correlation by era
The same math, run separately within each historical era’s date range.
| Era | Correlation | Months of data |
|---|---|---|
Post-war boom 1947–1969 | — | 0(thin) |
Stagflation 1973–1982 | -0.18 | 79 |
Volcker disinflation 1980–1982 | -0.26 | 36 |
The Great Moderation 1983–2000 | -0.20 | 216 |
Dot-com boom & bust 1995–2002 | -0.71 | 96 |
Housing bubble & Global Financial Crisis 2003–2009 | -0.32 | 84 |
Post-GFC recovery / QE era 2009–2015 | +0.21 | 84 |
Rate normalization 2015–2019 | -0.04 | 60 |
COVID crash & recovery 2020–2021 | +0.78 | 24 |
Inflation surge & hiking cycle 2021–2023 | +0.79 | 36 |
Current cycle 2024–present | -0.55 | 33 |