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LaborLagging
Unemployment Rate
% · monthly · since 1948
3yr rolling correlation to S&P 500
-0.20
long-run avg: +0.09
Shaded bands below mark these eras
Post-war boom (1947–1969)Stagflation (1973–1982)Volcker disinflation (1980–1982)The Great Moderation (1983–2000)Dot-com boom & bust (1995–2002)Housing bubble & Global Financial Crisis (2003–2009)Post-GFC recovery / QE era (2009–2015)Rate normalization (2015–2019)COVID crash & recovery (2020–2021)Inflation surge & hiking cycle (2021–2023)Current cycle (2024–present)
History vs. S&P 500 (indexed, start = 100)
Rolling correlation to S&P 500
Recalculated continuously using the trailing 3 years of data. Uses the raw value directly.
Advanced: rolling window
Correlation by era
The same math, run separately within each historical era’s date range.
| Era | Correlation | Months of data |
|---|---|---|
Post-war boom 1947–1969 | +0.05 | 264 |
Stagflation 1973–1982 | +0.20 | 120 |
Volcker disinflation 1980–1982 | -0.47 | 36 |
The Great Moderation 1983–2000 | +0.08 | 216 |
Dot-com boom & bust 1995–2002 | -0.20 | 96 |
Housing bubble & Global Financial Crisis 2003–2009 | -0.49 | 84 |
Post-GFC recovery / QE era 2009–2015 | -0.08 | 84 |
Rate normalization 2015–2019 | -0.19 | 60 |
COVID crash & recovery 2020–2021 | -0.58 | 24 |
Inflation surge & hiking cycle 2021–2023 | +0.74 | 36 |
Current cycle 2024–present | -0.41 | 32 |